'Something potentially monumental has taken place in Russia'

MP for Ellesmere Port

ONE thing for sure is that something potentially monumental has taken place in Russia in the past week.

What appears to be equally clear is that few people, if any, can say with certainty what exactly happened and whether there was a genuine intention to topple the Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Was it an attempted coup? Was it a failed mutiny? Are we beginning to witness the collapse of an enemy nuclear superpower?

Political commentators seem unsure what so-called ‘Wagner’ leader Yevgeny Prigozhin intended when he declared his troops would march on the Russian capital Moscow.

The intention was not, it is now being suggested, to overthrow Putin – a man who likes to give the impression of having an iron grip on millions of people over what is a massive geographical territory.

No, said Prigozhin: “We didn’t march to overthrow Russia’s leadership.” In an 11-minute video message, he says: "The aim of the march was to avoid destruction of Wagner and to hold to account the officials who through their unprofessional actions have committed a massive number of errors."

Wagner, who has bizarrely been granted an amnesty on the proviso that he moves to neighbouring Belarus, regrets that "they had to hit Russian aviation" and they turned around "to avoid spilling blood of Russian soldiers".

“We were on a march to demonstrate our protest, not to topple the government,” Prigozhin is quoted as saying.

We know a good deal about Putin who is now wanted for war crimes following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But what do we know about Prigozhin? Well his first criminal conviction was at the age of 18 and he later served nine years in jail for robbery and theft.

After leaving prison he later formed a catering company which was used by people in the Kremlin who gave him the nickname "Putin's chef".

His connections eventually gave him access to the armed forces and in 2014 he was involved in a group which helped Russia annex Crimea. This later became the Wagner group of mercenaries who have been accused of committing war crimes.

It is ventured that cracks have appeared in the relationship between Wagner and Moscow, eventually leading to Prigozhin’s brief mutiny at the weekend.

On a positive note for all who want an end to the needless loss of life in Ukraine, it is claimed Putin’s reputation has been seriously undermined by this latest sordid episode and his grip on the nation is decaying. We can but hope so, but the question must remain about who might replace him? There has to be concern that if he was toppled nobody can be sure that what emerges out of the chaos would be better for global security. It is of course still possible that Putin will remain in power for many years but Russia could descend into a series of factional groups, akin to local militias, fighting each other for control. It seems unlikely in any scenario that from this there will be a healthy democracy emerge and of course the fact that Russia still remains a nuclear power must not be forgotten.